The future of Ukrainian displaced persons in the Netherlands after March 2026
Summary
The EU’s Temporary Protection Directive, in force since March 2022, was recently extended until March 2026. For the approximately 100,000 Ukrainians in the Netherlands, this means an extension of their right to stay, but also continued uncertainty. Based on a report by the Clingendael Institute, this article argues that this group is at risk of remaining in a long-term state of legal and social limbo. The question arises: can Dutch and EU migration law provide a durable solution in the face of prolonged “temporariness”?
- Introduction
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands have received temporary protection under Directive 2001/55/EC. The recent extension of this protection until March 2026 marks a new phase: the “temporary” stay will have lasted four years, which contradicts the directive’s original intent. This article examines the legal sustainability of the extension and its consequences in light of recent events in Ukraine, the EU, and the Netherlands.
- Legal Sustainability of the TPD Extension
The Directive provides for a maximum duration of temporary protection of three years. However, this period has already been exceeded. According to, among others, the Dutch Council of State (ABRvS of 17 January 2024, ECLI:NL:RVS:2024:32), the extension requires a “very broad” interpretation of the directive. Despite being politically and practically justified, this could undermine the principle of legal certainty.
For several years, Ukrainians receiving temporary protection are excluded from the possibility of filing a formal asylum application, thus being denied access to a more stable status and the right to integration measures.
- Sustainable Settlement or Return?
According to interviews conducted by Regioplan for Clingendael, many Ukrainians in the Netherlands have already put down roots, feel “at home,” and do not plan to return in the near future. The war continues, infrastructure is being destroyed, and the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. A mass return in the short term is unlikely.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands is tightening its reception policy: the focus is shifting from collective accommodation to self-sufficiency. Ukrainians are encouraged to find employment, live independently, and learn the language—this effectively stimulates integration, but without granting a legal status that corresponds to this process.
- Prospects: The Need for a New Approach
As the limits of the directive’s legal and political flexibility have been reached, a new strategic solution is necessary. The following scenarios are possible:
- Individual examination of asylum applications: Granting access to the procedure for persons who have resided for a long time and are unable to return.
- National transitional mechanism: Introducing a temporary solution for well-integrated Ukrainians (analogous to the “general pardon” of 2007).
- TPD reform at the EU level: Striving for a revision of the directive that includes elements of long-term protection.
- Conclusion
The extension of temporary protection until March 2026 provides time, but does not create a perspective. The Dutch authorities face a choice: continue the legal fiction of “temporariness” or acknowledge the factual reality—a community of Ukrainians that is sustainably integrating into Dutch society.
An early, clear, and reliable solution in favor of long-term residence is necessary—from a legal, social, and administrative standpoint.
Sources (selection)
- Clingendael (September 2024), Beschermingsopdracht Oekraïense ontheemden in Nederland (Protection Mandate for Ukrainian Displaced Persons in the Netherlands)
- ABRvS 17/01/2024, ECLI:NL:RVS:2024:32
- Directive 2001/55/EC
- Regioplan (2024), In-depth interviews with Ukrainian displaced persons
- UNHCR & ACLED data (2024)
